5 Top 2024 NFL Draft Prospects Who Could Actually Fall out of the First Round

The NFL draft is always full of surprises and that usually includes some of the top prospects not hearing their name called on opening night. Michael Mayer, Joey Porter Jr. and Will Levis were among those who were shockingly still around when Friday came around last year.

This year’s draft will be no different.

NFL draft analysts and media spend the whole draft cycle projecting draft stock and where players will wind up, but every team’s board looks different. They’re the ones who are ultimately making the picks.

These prospects all appear in the first round of NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus first-round mock or top 32 of the big board, but could actually fall out of the first round entirely based on positional depth, where we have them ranked on our big board and potential concerns that teams could have.

The quarterback class is what makes this draft particularly interesting. There are conceivably six quarterbacks who could wind up going in the first round.

But this is also a good time to remind everyone that Will Levis was receiving late buzz to go with the first overall pick last season. The quarterback position is so important that it can tend to get overemphasized and prospects fall dramatically on draft day.

Bo Nix could be the latest player to fall victim to that phenomenon.

The consensus mock draft has him heading to the Denver Broncos with the 12th overall pick. It’s a pairing that makes some sense given Nix’s strength as an accurate underneath passer and Sean Payton’s success with Drew Brees even when his arm strength started to dwindle.

However, Bo Nix comes in at No. 61 on our final big board. There should be some trepidation that Nix didn’t become an incredibly efficient quarterback until he transferred to Oregon where he feasted on screens and short passes.

His passing numbers in his final season are nearly identical to Mac Jones who was criticized for being a product of his college system and surrounding talent.

There’s a chance that teams aren’t really as enamored with Nix as we’ve been lead to believe.

Jer’Zhan Newton was a lot of fun to watch at Illinois and he has a high ceiling as a disruptive defender on the interior. However, there are two primary reasons why he might not go as early as you would think.

For one, he’s on the smaller side. According to MockDraftable, he’s 17th percentile in height, 22nd in arm length and 47th in weight. A look at his size comps doesn’t reveal a list of notable NFL players.

Newton would have been able to dispel some of those worries with elite athletic testing. After all, he wins with his quickness off the line of scrimmage and athleticism. However, a Jones fracture in his foot kep him from participating in the combine.

After watching Tyree Wilson struggle to make an impact as a rookie due to a foot injury, it’s fair to wonder how NFL teams are going to react to the injury.

If teams are a little dubious of Newton’s ability to translate his game to the league at his size or that the injury might be a sign of future injury trouble, we might hear Newton’s name much later than initially expected.

Bo Nix isn’t the only quarterback who might be in for a draft-day slide. Michael Penix Jr. could wait beyond Thursday as well.

Penix captured plenty of attention during Washington’s run to the national title game. His impressive arm combined with a trio of NFL-bound receivers created one of the most fun offenses in college football.

However, B/R scout Derrik Klassen isn’t nearly as high on Penix as some. He ranked 87th on our final big board. There are the obvious injury concerns. Penix suffered four different season-ending injuries in his collegiate career including two torn ACLs and shoulder injuries.

He bounced back to put up big numbers in his final two seasons at Washington. However, teams could be skittish after watching multiple star quarterbacks go down with injuries this offseason.

It isn’t just the injuries, though. Penix’s ability to thrive under pressure has been called into question throughout the draft process. As Klassen noted in his scouting report, “Penix is not a nimble, thoughtful mover in the pocket, and his low, clunky release makes it difficult to find unique throwing angles. Penix is not an impressive creator outside the pocket at this stage, either.”

Teams are looking for the quarterbacks who can improvise when things break down and create plays. It’s a copycat league and no one is better at that than Patrick Mahomes.

Penix tested well but that athleticism doesn’t seem to translate on the field. That could give teams pause about spending a first-round pick on him.

Amarius Mims has been a mainstay in most first-round mock drafts and it’s not hard to see why. He’s a 6’8″, 340-pound tackle with excellent movement skills, athleticism and sky-high potential.

But it’s also inaccurate to say that he doesn’t come with some risk.

Mims waited his turn at Georgia so he’s coming into the draft with just eight career starts. While most of the linemen in the draft have been seasoned with at least two years of starting, Mims is a relative neophyte at the position.

Part of the reason he didn’t play as many games is that he had to undergo TightRope ankle surgery after three games last season. The result is a player who needs polishing and carries some injury risk, especially at his size.

ESPN’s Jordan Reid reported back in early April that “thoughts are all over the place” on Mims from the scouts that he talked to. While teams acknowledge his immense talent and potential, there are also concerns about his durability.

Ultimately, a team will probably be willing to gamble on his health and development. There are so many things that Mims does at his size that are hard to come by.

But it also wouldn’t be shocking if teams are scared off of him in the first round and wait until Day 2 to bet on his size and strength.

Darius Robinson is a prospect whose hype started during the Senior Bowl and has seemingly continued to grow throughout the process. He comes in at No. 29 to the Detroit Lions in the NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus mock draft.

That buzz grew even louder a day before the draft when ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that he’s heard multiple scouts anticipate a late first-round landing spot for Robinson. They have told him that teams like that he can play as a 3-4 defensive end who can kick inside.

That should be met with some skepticism, though. Robinson did good things at the Senior Bowl and has some intriguing tools, but B/R scout Matt Holder didn’t see the same player on his college film.

While Robinson tested well at the combine, Holder described him as, “A clunky mover who is a little stiff and robotic, which limits the amount of finesse moves he can win with as a pass-rusher,” in his scouting report.

Robinson’s pass-rush arsenal was a bit limited as well. It’s fair to wonder how he is going to win as a pass-rusher at the next level.

If teams really think that he could develop into an elite interior rusher then it would make sense to hear his name called on Thursday. But if he’s more of a project who is just going to be a solid 3-4 defensive end then it’s more appropriate to see him taken on Day 2.