Ranking MLB’s 10 Biggest Disappointments so Far in 2024

Through a little more than two months of action, the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season has been chock full of developments that no one saw coming.

Some of those are pleasant surprises, while others…not so much.

In our ranking of the season’s biggest disappointments thus far, preseason expectation is critical information. For instance, the Chicago White Sox are an abject disaster, currently on pace for what would be a modern-day record of 121 losses. However, preseason win total lines had them projected for 100 losses, so what’s another 20?

Instead of focusing on the White Sox or the supposed-to-be-equally-bad Colorado Rockies, the disappointing teams on this list are ones that at least had a playoff pulse to begin the season.

Similarly, players chosen aren’t necessarily the least productive, but the ones who have fallen furthest shy of what we thought they would do.

“Honorable” Mentions: Julio Rodríguez, Spencer Torkelson, Kyle Hendricks, Jorge Soler, Paul Goldschmidt, Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels

2024 Stats: .148/.207/.160, 0 HR, 3 RBI, -0.7 bWAR

2023 Stats: .280/.313/.347, 0 HR, 9 RBI, -0.7 bWAR

For the most part, the individual players on this list are established stars who just haven’t had it thus far in 2024.

That’s not the case with Vaughn Grissom, who barely saw big-league action last season and has not yet amounted to much in the majors outside of an impressive first four weeks of his career in 2022.

There’s still a two-pronged, major disappointment in play here.

The first prong is that Grissom has consistently thrived in the minors. He hit .319 in 2021 and only got better from there, hitting .324 in 2022, .330 last year and .333 in the nine games he spent in Worcester this spring. Over the course of his five seasons in the minors, Grissom posted an .883 OPS, operating at a 162-game pace of roughly 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases.

He’s still only 23 years old, but when is that middle-infield phenom going to find his way to the majors again?

The second, much more painful prong, though, is the fact that Boston gave Atlanta Chris Sale and $17 million this past offseason to acquire Grissom. And while Grissom is struggling to get hits, Sale has been one of the most important pieces keeping Atlanta afloat.

The Red Sox were going to lose the oft-injured Sale to free agency this offseason and proactively grabbed a budding star who will be under team control through 2029. It’s plausible that it’ll end up looking like a smart move a few years down the line.

Right now, though?

Ouch.

Record: 27-30

Preseason Win Total: 86.5

Facing the White Sox was exactly what the doctor ordered for the floundering Blue Jays, winning five out of six games against the worst team in baseball in the span of 10 days.

Can they carry that momentum through what is going to be a hellacious stretch of games for the next month, though?

Because against legitimate competition, Toronto has been a mess, unable to score runs at anywhere near the level that it should.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. woke up at the plate in May, batting nearly .400, albeit with only two home runs. Bo Bichette also sprang to life with nine multi-hit performances in the span of 18 games.

But it hasn’t been enough; even with Isiah Kiner-Falefa currently boasting an OPS of .700 or better for what would be the first time in his career.

There are just too many easy outs in the lineup, which has paired disastrously with both a bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors and Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman each underachieving his way to an ERA north of 4.00.

If the upcoming schedule—17 of the next 26 games against teams comfortably in the playoff picture—buries them even deeper in the standings, the trade deadline fire sale could be quite the spectacle.

2024 Stats: .160/.260/.311, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 7 SB, -0.7 bWAR

2023 Stats: .254/.364/.425, 23 HR, 83 RBI, 22 SB, 3.5 bWAR

During the winter meetings this past December, there was talk of Randy Arozarena possibly getting traded to Seattle in what would have been a sizable blockbuster.

The way he’s hitting thus far in 2024, though, the Mariners probably feel like they dodged a bullet by not going all-in for the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year.

Arozarena entered this season as one of just three players in the majors on a streak of three consecutive seasons with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. The others were Trea Turner and José Ramírez.

To Arozarena’s credit, he is roughly on pace to extend that streak to a fourth season, operating at a 162-game pace of 22.0 HR and 19.2 SB.

He just might do so by the skin of his teeth and with the worst batting average in baseball.

The 2023 All-Star had a career batting average of .265 and a career on-base percentage of .351 two months ago. However, BABIP has defied him to a preposterous degree. He finished each of the previous three seasons with a BABIP of .310 or better, but he entered play Friday with a mark of .191 that ranked dead last among qualified hitters.

To some extent, that’s just terrible luck. But it’s also a product of simply not making good contact and a launch angle that’s all out of whack. Arozarena’s line-drive rate (11.5 percent) is way down from his career norms, while his fly-ball rate (45.3 percent) is through the roof.

It’s not the breaking stuff, either. He just cannot hit fastballs this year.

Per Baseball Savant, Arozarena entered 2024 batting .296 and slugging .526 on at-bats that ended on fastballs. Those marks are at .139 and .287 this season.

So, yes, his BABIP is .191, but his expected batting average isn’t much better at .195. Things have been rough, and they might not be getting better.

Record: 21-38

Preseason Win Total: 77.5

With a preseason win total that put their expected win percentage below .500, let’s be clear that the Marlins weren’t exactly expected to be a World Series contender.

They were supposed to win a solid 15-20 more games than the truly terrible teams, though.

Instead, they have become one of the biggest dumpster fires of all.

They already traded away two-time batting champ Luis Arráez a month ago, which has left this offense in a near constant state of struggling to string anything together.

Miami did score 17 runs out of nowhere in its final two games of May, but only after scoring 10 runs in its previous six games combined. And even after that outburst, they’re still averaging fewer runs per game than every team except for the White Sox.

The biggest disappointment on offense has been the $5 million flier they took on Tim Anderson. The Marlins were hoping his atrocious 2023 campaign was a blip after four consecutive seasons batting north of .300, but he has instead gotten even worse.

As far as the pitching goes, Ryan Weathers has been a pleasant surprise, and Tanner Scott has somehow been a reliable closer despite averaging seven walks per nine innings pitched. But it gets ugly in a hurry from there, highlighted by the failed attempt to convert A.J. Puk from a closer to a starter.

There is one other bright spot, as Jesús Luzardo has pitched quite well since getting out to a brutal start to the season. However, it’s sounding like it will only be a matter of time before he joins Arráez on the list of players who the Marlins traded away. (Scott is also as good as gone, as he is an impending free agent.)

2024 Stats: 19.0 IP, 10.42 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, -1.0 bWAR

2023 Stats: 180.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 6.2 bWAR

Blake Snell got a late start to the year after waiting until midway through spring training to sign as a free agent. Then, after making three disappointing starts, he spent a month on the IL with an adductor strain.

So, yes, it’s a small sample size.

Still, what a colossal fall from grace from the two-time Cy Young recipient.

In each of Snell’s five starts in 2024, he has allowed at least one run per inning pitched.

He made just two such appearances in the entire 2023 season.

Though his K/9 is still looking quite nice, his whiff rate on the non-fastballs is way down from where it had been the previous two seasons.

Again, small sample size. Josh Hader had a similarly baffling run two summers ago before bouncing back to his usual dominance. And through nine starts last season, Snell had a 5.40 ERA and was viewed as one of the biggest reasons the Padres were underachieving.

Maybe he figures things out again this June.

Thus far, though, he just isn’t generating swings and misses like we’re used to seeing.

Record: 28-30

Preseason Win Total: 88.5

At just two games below .500, the Texas Rangers are hardly a lost cause. One good week and they are right back in the thick of both the AL West and the wild-card races. And we knew long before Opening Day that they were designed to be better in the second half of the season than the first, once they got Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle back on the mound.

What the Rangers hadn’t planned for, however, was the offense taking a significant step backward as a whole while a bunch of key players joined deGrom, Scherzer and Mahle on the IL.

Josh Jung started out on fire, but lasted just four games before breaking his wrist.

Among the 15 Rangers who have made at least 20 plate appearances this season, the only one with an OPS of .800 or better is Corey Seager—and he only recently caught fire, ending play on May 5 with a .594 OPS before mashing everything for four weeks.

Preseason AL Rookie of the Year co-favorites Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford have both been underwhelming in between their IL stints.

The only starting pitcher who was on the Opening Day roster who hasn’t spent time on the IL is Andrew Heaney, and he’s having the worst year of the bunch with a 4.47 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

Things just haven’t gone according to plan, and it’s frankly a bit miraculous the Rangers are treading water as well as they have been.

All the same, it’s weird and disappointing to see the reigning champs sitting below .500 nearly 60 games into the campaign.

2024 Stats: .197/.280/.289, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 9 SB, 0.0 bWAR

2023 Stats: .285/.362/.506, 25 HR, 76 RBI, 54 SB, 5.4 bWAR

We wrote yesterday about how it looks like Corbin Carroll is maybe, sort of, kind of starting to come to life. After posting a woeful .527 OPS through his first 43 games played, he had a .734 mark over his final 12 games of May, getting four triples and his first three-game hit of the season.

However, even that stretch of improved play is a far cry from how impressive he was in winning 2023 NL Rookie of the Year.

This probably goes without saying for a guy who has gone from averaging one home run in every 26 trips to the plate to one averaging one home run in every 122 trips to the plate, but Carroll just isn’t hitting the ball as hard.

His average exit velocity has dropped from 90 MPH to 87.1 MPH, and his hard-hit percentage has plummeted from 40.9 percent to 33.1 percent.

Carroll is still seeing the ball well. He’s actually walking a bit more than he did last year, and his contact rate when he does swing is a tick up from 80.5 percent to 81.0 percent.

It just hasn’t been the same kind of contact, regardless of the pitch type.

This has led to speculations that it could be issues with the shoulder that was surgically repaired in 2021 and re-injured last summer. (Arizona has made no indications that the shoulder is a problem, and he has continued to play on a nearly everyday basis.)

Carroll is far from the only disappointment for an Arizona team currently six games below .500. Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to pitch. Jordan Montgomery has yet to pitch well. Both Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are currently on the IL. And Eugenio Suárez hasn’t been the slugger at third base the Diamondbacks hoped they were getting.

But it’s Carroll’s poor start that has gotten most of the attention.

Record: 24-34

Preseason Win Total: 81.5

For the second consecutive year, the New York Mets put together the largest Opening Day payroll, only to accomplish diddly squat with it.

While it’s true that the expectations for this year’s team were a far cry from what they were heading into 2023, we’re still talking about $300 million here.

Yes, nearly a quarter of that total is retained/deferred money for the likes of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Bobby Bonilla that was never going to help this season.

Still, there are 12 current Mets with eight-figure salaries, and they’ve won the same number of games as an Oakland team with nary a player making $10M.

Kodai Senga has yet to pitch in 2024. Edwin Díaz recently joined him on the IL. Brett Baty just got sent back down to Triple-A. Every hitter with at least 60 plate appearances has an OPS below .800. Every pitcher with at least 20 innings pitched has an ERA north of 3.00. And the body language pretty much throughout the roster has been abysmal.

Even retiring Darryl Strawberry’s number Saturday wasn’t enough to spark some give a darn in the Mets, as they proceeded to allow 10 runs in a loss to the Diamondbacks.

At this point, it seems to just be a question of where impending free agent Pete Alonso gets traded this summer, and how many other expiring assets follow him out the door.

Atlanta got contributions from all over the roster en route to its MLB-leading 104 regular-season wins in 2023, but there were eight main attractions: NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., MLB home-run leader Matt Olson and the collection of Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider.

Both on FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, those were the eight team leaders in wins above replacement; the stars who carried them through a ridiculously potent offensive season and the ace who won 20 games while striking out everything in his path.

Save for Ozuna trying to carry the offense by his lonesome, though, those stars have been nonexistent in 2024.

Strider suffered a season-ending UCL injury after just two appearances. Acuña wasn’t hitting like his usual self for two months, and then suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Murphy is finally back, but he missed nearly two months with an oblique injury suffered on Opening Day.

The other four have been mostly healthy—Riley missed two weeks in May with a side injury; Albies missed eight games in April with a fractured toe—but haven’t been nearly the collective force that they were in 2023.

All told, they’ve gone from averaging 5.8 runs per game last year to a modest 4.5 this year. They’ve still managed to put together one of the better records in the majors, but mostly because Chris Sale and Reynaldo López have been pitching out of their minds. If those veterans come back to earth before Olson, Harris and Co. get into a groove, things could go south in a hurry.

Record: 26-33

Preseason Win Total: 93.5

Do you remember the preseason hierarchy of MLB teams?

It was the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves jostling for the top spot, co-favorites to win the World Series. And then the AL favorite was the Houston Astros, supposed to finish a few games ahead of both the Yankees and the Orioles in the race for the AL’s No. 1 seed.

To put it lightly, that’s not the way things have played out.

Each of the other top teams just mentioned is at least eight games above .500, while Houston would need to reel off 15 consecutive wins to get there.

What’s baffling about their continued inability to get over the hump is there has been a lot of individual success.

Kyle Tucker has been incredible. Jake Meyers has vastly exceeded expectations. So has Ronel Blanco. José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Jeremy Peña and Mauricio Dubón have all been more than adequate, each with an OPS of .750 or better. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have all been solid, when healthy, each with an ERA below 4.00.

But the whole simply has not been greater than the sum of its parts, struggling to string together so much as a two-game winning streak unless they’re facing the A’s or the Rockies.

It does still feel like they’re on the brink of hitting their stride and going on a run.

With each week that it doesn’t happen, though, the disappointment in this team grows a little stronger.