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The 2023 NFL regular season may be winding down, but the action is only picking up as teams battle for playoff positioning ahead of Week 18.
Just four teams entered Saturday’s Week 16 action having clinched a playoff berth, one in the AFC—the Baltimore Ravens—and three in the NFC—the San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.
The Pittsburgh Steelers kicked off Saturday’s slate with a 34-11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, as they continue to float around the playoff bubble with an 8-7 record.
The Buffalo Bills followed it up with a 24-22 win over the Los Angeles Chargers to improve to 9-6 and vault themselves into the AFC playoff picture—for now.
Ahead of a huge Christmas Eve slate on Sunday, here’s a look at the current playoff picture following Saturday’s action.
Full playoff picture available at ESPN.com
AFC Standings
* Signifies a team that has clinched a playoff berth.
** Signifies a team that has been eliminated from playoff contention.
1. Baltimore Ravens, 11-3 *
2. Miami Dolphins, 10-4
3. Kansas City Chiefs, 9-5
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-6
Wins tie break over Indianapolis and Houston based on head-to-head win percentage.
5. Cleveland Browns, 9-5
6. Buffalo Bills, 9-6
7. Indianapolis Colts, 8-6
Indianapolis wins tie break over Houston based on head-to-head win percentage.
8. Houston Texans, 8-6
9. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8-7
Wins tie break over Cincinnati based on head-to-head win percentage.
10. Cincinnati Bengals, 8-7
11. Denver Broncos, 7-7
12. Las Vegas Raiders, 6-8
13. Tennessee Titans, 5-9 **
Wins tie break over NY Jets based on best win percentage in common games.
14. New York Jets, 5-9 **
15. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-10 **
16. New England Patriots, 3-11 **
AFC Analysis
The Steelers did wonders for their playoff hopes on Saturday by defeating the Bengals 34-11 at Acrisure Stadium. They jumped into ninth place in the AFC and now sit above Cincinnati based on head-to-head win percentage.
Mike Tomlin’s decision to pivot to Mason Rudolph from Mitchell Trubisky amid Kenny Pickett’s ankle injury paid dividends for the Steelers as the signal-caller threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns in the win.
If Pickett is unable to return from an ankle injury over the next few weeks, Rudolph may give the Black and Gold their best chance of securing a playoff berth.
Buffalo’s win over L.A. vaulted them into a playoff spot, and the victory was largely thanks to quarterback Josh Allen, who threw for 237 yards, one touchdown and one interception, in addition to rushing for two scores.
The AFC playoff picture remains tight, but multiple teams can secure playoff berths this weekend.
The Kansas City Chiefs have the easiest path to clinching a playoff berth. If they beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday, they’ll be in the postseason for the ninth straight season. They can also clinch with a tie and a Denver Broncos loss.
The Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins can also clinch playoff berths this weekend, though their clinching scenarios are a bit more complicated.
Cleveland will face the Houston Texans on Sunday and the Dolphins will take on the Dallas Cowboys.
Aside from the clinching scenarios, there could also be some pretty big movement in the AFC playoff picture this weekend.
The Indianapolis Colts (8-6) could put an incredible amount of pressure on the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) to maintain their standing in the AFC South with a win over the Atlanta Falcons.
The Denver Broncos (7-7) could also do wonders for their playoff chances with a win over the lowly New England Patriots (3-11) on Sunday. Considering New England has already ruled out Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jabrill Peppers, things are looking good for Denver.
NFC Standings
* Signifies a team that has clinched a playoff berth.
** Signifies a team that has been eliminated from playoff contention.
1. San Francisco 49ers, 11-3 *
2. Dallas Cowboys, 10-4 *
Wins tie break over Detroit based on best win percentage in conference games.
3. Detroit Lions, 10-4
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-7
5. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-4 *
6. Los Angeles Rams, 8-7
7. Minnesota Vikings, 7-7
Wins tie break over Seattle based on best win percentage in conference games.
8. Seattle Seahawks, 7-7
9. New Orleans Saints, 7-8
10. Atlanta Falcons, 6-8
11. Green Bay Packers, 6-8
Wins tie break over Green Bay based on head-to-head win percentage.
12. New York Giants, 5-9
Wins tie break over Chicago based on best win percentage in common games.
13. Chicago Bears, 5-9
14. Washington Commanders, 4-10 **
15. Arizona Cardinals, 3-11 **
16. Carolina Panthers, 2-12 **
NFC Analysis
The NFC playoff picture isn’t as wide open as three teams have already clinched playoff spots.
However, those three teams continue to battle for the No. 1 seed, and at least one more team can secure a playoff spot this weekend. The Detroit Lions can clinch a playoff spot with a Los Angeles Rams loss OR tie or a Seattle Seahawks loss OR tie.
The 49ers, meanwhile, will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win, Philadelphia loss, Dallas loss and Detroit loss.
The battle for the NFC South crown remains tight as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7), New Orleans Saints (7-8) and Atlanta Falcons (6-8) remain in contention to win the division. The Bucs and Falcons face difficult opponents this weekend in the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts, respectively.
A Tampa win would give the Bucs some breathing room in the division standings, but a loss would open things up even more in the NFC South title race.
A Seahawks win over the Tennessee Titans would put pressure on the Rams to continue winning games through the final weeks of the season as they continue to nip at L.A.’s heels in the standings, and a Vikings win over the Lions would create even more chaos in the playoff picture.
